A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years
Por:
Paredes-Aracil E, Palazón-Bru A, Folgado-de la Rosa DM, Ots-Gutiérrez JR, Compañ-Rosique AF and Gil-Guillén VF
Publicada:
24 mar 2017
Categoría:
Multidisciplinary
Resumen:
Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC)
(generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients
and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a
predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific
for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This
cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region
in 2003-2016. Main outcome variable: time-to-BC death. Secondary
variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of
any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor,
progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage,
multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system
was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was
internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated
into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 +/- 3.5
years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age,
personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation
was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion,
we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting
BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed
for its use in other geographical areas.
Filiaciones:
Paredes-Aracil E:
Surgery Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Elda, Alicante, Spain
:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Folgado-de la Rosa DM:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain
Ots-Gutiérrez JR:
Surgery Service, Marina Baixa Hospital, La Vila Joiosa, Alicante, Spain
Compañ-Rosique AF:
Department of Pathology and Surgery, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain
:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain
Research Unit, General University Hospital of Elda, Elda, Alicante, Spain
|